Myanmar military chief visits China amid worsening civil war

Myanmar’s embattled military chief, Min Aung Hlaing, is in China to take part in a two-day summit of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) — a group including China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia — starting on Wednesday in the southwestern city of Kunming.
This is his first trip to China since seizing power in a coup over three and a half years ago.
The junta shared photos of the senior general addressing a gathering of Chinese business leaders.
On Wednesday, Min held talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who expressed Beijing’s support for Myanmar’s political reconciliation and transition efforts, state media reported.
Myanmar has been in a state of political turmoil since the military toppled the democratically elected government in February 2021.
The coup sparked mass protests, which evolved into a major anti-junta uprising, particularly in regions dominated by ethnic minorities. 
Those opposing the military regime have formed alliances comprising ethnic groups and civilian-led defense forces.
The civil war is estimated to have claimed the lives of over 5,000 civilians since 2021.
Millions have been internally displaced and the country’s economy lies in tatters.
Even though the Myanmar generals have been shunned by the international community, Beijing has maintained good working ties with them. China is also the Southeast Asian nation’s biggest trade partner and a major supplier of weapons to the Myanmar military.
Khin Ohmar, an activist and founder of the human rights organization Progressive Voice of Myanmar, said Min’s visit shows which side China is on.
“China receiving Min Aung Hlaing is their latest signal to the world that they are backing the junta, not for any other reason but to protect China’s interests in Myanmar,” she told DW.
Ohmar stressed that Beijing is making a “huge mistake” by supporting the junta. “Taking sides with the Myanmar military and pressuring the people’s movement to accept military rule is not the way to go,” she noted.
Beijing, for its part, has stressed the regional focus of the Kunming gathering, saying it wanted to consult “all sides” against “a background of a weakening global recovery and geopolitical turbulence,” the AFP news agency reported. 
Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the International Crisis Group, said China is backing the military junta, but doesn’t have confidence in Min. 
“A Mekong summit invitation serves China’s purpose of giving greater backing to the regime so that it doesn’t fall in a disorderly way, but without making a big bet on Min Aung Hlaing,” he told DW. 
Min’s trip comes at a delicate time as the civil war in the country has intensified over the past year.
The junta has been hit hard by a rebel offensive that seized vast swathes of territory, particularly near the border with China.
The rebels captured the city of Lashio in August, dealing a devastating blow to the junta-led regime.
Junta supporters said China gave its tacit backing to the rebel offensive in return for the dismantling of major online scam compounds that are run by Chinese human traffickers in Myanmar. This has contributed to growing mistrust between Beijing and the Myanmar military. 
But Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace, said China did not support the ethnic armed groups’ overall goals.
“By early January, China saw that the Myanmar military was losing at a concerning pace, and that this was impacting China’s geostrategic investments in the country,” he told DW.
“China also made it bluntly clear to the ethnic armed groups that it was not supportive of their stated goals of regime change and demanded that they cut ties with the National Unity Government,” Tower added.
According to Myanmar’s National Unity Government, which was formed by a coalition of ousted democratically elected lawmakers who sought to establish a parallel or exile government, over 60% of the nation’s territory was controlled by the resistance forces prior to the capture of Lashio.
Some speculate that the fighting will now escalate and spread as opposition groups target towns and cities that have long been considered the military’s strongholds, such as Myawaddy and Mandalay.
Ye Myo Hein, a Myanmar expert, said anti-China sentiment has also been on the rise in Myanmar.
Last month, the Chinese Consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, was slightly damaged by a small blast caused by an explosive device.
There were no casualties and no public claims of responsibility.
“By inviting the junta leader, China signals that it has moved beyond supporting the process of stability and is now backing a specific actor — the junta itself,” Ye told DW.
“China may exert greater pressure on ethnic armed groups near its border to cease fighting against the junta and engage in negotiations with it. This move will likely fuel more anti-Chinese sentiment among resistance forces,” he added. 
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru